Bank echange rate forecasts: useful for hedging risk?
In September 2025, the consensus forecast for EUR/USD was 1.21 for Octobre 2026. Today, it trades at 1.12.
A company that based its hedging on this figure would be facing a considerable budget variance.
When a corporate treasurer builds an FX hedging strategy around FX consensus forecasts in an attempt to outsmart the market, they are usually the ones left taking the blame when reality hits.
Foreign exchange forecasts remain a useful insight, but a robust hedging strategy starts with your forecasted exposure, what your company can bear in the worst-case scenario, its need for flexibility, and a timeline tailored to your operational requirements.
In this carousel, we share:
→ Concrete examples of forecasts versus reality (USD, JPY, CHF)
→ The 4 most common mistakes
→ 8 principles to structure a robust hedging policy
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